A USA Today analysis of American Hospital Association (AHA) hospital bed data shows that if confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths follow similar growth curves as in China, Italy, and Iran, there could be six patients for every existing hospital bed. This means that no hospital system in the US is prepared for a pandemic.
“Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we’ll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients – two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times,” said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Nebraska Medical Center.”
Lawler warned that “no hospital has the current capacity to absorb” a massive surge of Covid-19 infections.”
USA Today estimates that 23.8 million Americans could be infected. That number is based on an infection rate of 7.4%, similar to the common flu. Some experts say the infection rate could be much higher.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security says infections could hit 38 million, including 9.6 million who will need to be hospitalized, and about 33% of whom would need ICU-level care.
With an infection rate unclear, USA Today’s analysis used that of a mild flu season. It said if everyone in the US who gets infected is hospitalized, that would be 4.7 million patients, which is about 6 per every hospital bed.
The fast-spreading virus could overwhelm the US’ healthcare system if confirmed cases and deaths surge in a 2-3-week period, as it did in China, Italy, and Iran. Currently, Italy’s health care system has been crippled with the lack of hospital beds and respirators. The result of not providing ICU-level treatment to the most critical patients has resulted in the country’s extraordinarily high 6.8% mortality rate.
The doomsday scenario that could play out in the US is an overburden healthcare system, where the most vulnerable cannot get ICU-level treatment, leading to a mortality rate comparable to Italy.
“When hospitals become much more crowded, literally stretched beyond capacity, if I have a heart attack, will I be able to get care? If I have an auto accident, will I get care? How do we triage that?” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “We can’t approach this like I approach a game of checkers with my 10-year-old grandson,” he added. “We have to approach this like a chess master thinking 10 to 15 moves down the board.”
Many hospital systems across the US aren’t designed to handle a mass influx of patients from a viral outbreak, indicating that no state is ready for a pandemic.
During the next outbreak, USA Today notes that many West Coast states would experience 20-24 seriously ill patients per available hospital bed. The odds of getting a bed are significantly higher in Rocky Mountain and Plains states. As for the East Coast, sick patients in Maryland and Connecticut would have the most difficulty in obtaining a bed.
When it comes to the rest of the world, the US ranks very low in the number of hospital beds per 1000.
As for ICU beds per 100,000, the US ranks the highest among the global community.
USA Today’s analysis assumes confirmed cases would happen over time, but if observing data from China, Italy, and Iran, Covid-19 outbreaks tend to strike hard and quick. Considering confirmed cases in the US are a little over 2,500 on Saturday afternoon, containment measures for all major metro areas have been missed by over a month. It’s only now preventive strategies to mitigate community spreading are being implemented, and even then, most people are ignoring the warnings to conduct social distancing, which all means cases are likely to increase in the coming weeks.
“Whenever you have an outbreak that you can start seeing community spread … when you have enough of that, then it becomes a situation where you’re not going to be able to effectively and efficiently contain it,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a House committee Wednesday. “Bottom line, it’s going to get worse,” Fauci said.
How much worse is the billion-dollar question. As far as what we can see, the peak crisis has yet to arrive. Containment windows have been missed across major metros, implying that hospital systems could begin experiencing an influx of cases in the weeks ahead. If hospitals get overwhelmed, the US could be the next Italy with high mortality rates.
It’ll be in cities and states where there’s RETARDican rule because they already have the moronavirus making them more susceptible to the Coronavirus.
After all radical right media is telling them there’s nothing to worry about it’s just a Democrat hoax.
Just like the market crashing nothing to see here folks it’s only your money that you’ll lose, not trumpzilla’s.
Just like he said he won’t take responsibility for what’s happening now when it’s getting bad for him, but boy he never has any problem taking credit for the growing economy Obama left him claiming he did that LIE.
Now that it’s all coming crashing down around him because of his policies it’s time once again to blame Obama.
And boy all you people with the moronavirus believe every LIE coming out of his trap.
And you wonder why I call you RETARDicans.
I call you uninformed….get off this thread and stfu! Leave now!
Trump Derangement Troll
Every state is prepared. Why do you think many states shut down schools; because, they intend to turn them into hospital wards if there is an overflow of patients.
Why does the New Media constantly put out FAKE NEWS to frighten people?
I pray to God that the fake news medias will pay the consequences for evil empires.
One of those evil media empires is already paying the price for his Satan worshiping and that would be the Rush Limbaugh Evil Empire Of Lies And Misinformation he has stage four lung cancer proving that yes indeed God does punish the evilist amongst us, couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person or believer in Satan.
No, the States are not prepared and it is their problem…Don’t blame the President!
A little history for you. When your nigger was in the WH, 100,000 died of the swine/Ocoon virus, and 300,000 thousand were hospitalized. The reason you may not remember it is, your coon protecting MSN didn’t report it. They had to protect the first nigger!
Here’s proof of Trumpzilla’s explosion of racism and hatred in America his name is Gerald and like millions of you racist RETARDicans he’s just like you deny all you want but Gerald put it down in print for all to see and just watch as you people with moronavirus come to his defense proving I’m right again RETARDicans are all racist bigots.
Could you PLEASE act and speak like a considerate and decent human being ? Ditto for the one slamming Obama . I do NOT understand why it is so hard for you people to show some respect for people you disagree with. Gerald? Who ? Except for my late husband who was named Gerald, about the only Gerald I’m aware of was Gerald Ford, who is long dead. And all this blaming is maddening. There is plenty to go around. It doesn’t accomplish anything, either. We all need to use our energy on what we can do individually and collectively. To end this. I hope all of you do well.
Get out of her you moron!
I do so agree but he was not the first black that has not happened yet! Remember he is white and black half and half! He is an oreo cookie!
These arguments about how “ill prepared” we are for a FORECAST (maybe) catastrophe are nothing more than a continuing attempt to SCARE the American Public !! Just stop and think about it — We live in the MOST prepared country in the world — Our health resources exceed any others, anywhere in the world — yet the prophets of doom continually dwell on “what if’s” — Well, “what if” the precautions we are taking minimize the effect on our already HUGH medical resources and it passes as a slight bump in the road. In this case, all you will hear is an inaudible ‘lucky’. I, for one, believe the glass is HALF FULL, not half empty. I have CONFIDENCE that ‘regardless’ of the challenge, we SHALL SURVIVE. PREPARE, DON’T PANIC should be our watchword !!
To my countrymen (& women). There’s no point in name calling or playing the ‘blame game.’ That time should be over. The crisis is HERE. So now is the time for US (me, you & the rest of the country) to HELP EACH OTHER! That means purchasing ONLY what you need for 2 to 3 weeks! Hoarding helps NO ONE! Not the hoarder or his/her neighbors or family. Are we not supposed to be the FAMILY OF MAN??? For heaven’s sake!? Get a grip on your emotions! It is long past time for rational thinking! Take a few deep breaths America. Then take a few more. We’re all in this together. How are you going to feel knowing that because of one’s selfishness and panic someone they love WON’T be able to get what they need? If the nation continues in this fashion we will not only be financially bankrupt, but MORALLY bankrupt as well. At this juncture, I ask you: is THIS the ‘end-times’ we’ve been warned about? I want to believe in the basic goodness of humanity. But that is getting harder and harder to do. Please, take a moment to reflect on how your actions will benefit (or harm) your community. I wish you peace, love and hope that we can overcome this crisis. That our nation is BIGGER than our petty differences. May the Great Spirit guide and protect us all.
Too late when the President is blamed for everything….this has been since he took office…I take offense libtard….No people have made this political and I am saying back every one is out on their own…you will not bring a divided country back now! Wow!
Wow!! This is a sad state we are in, isn’t it?Everyone wants to blame every one else. Illness (in this case a virus) has no agenda. It doesn’t care if your poor or wealthy, intelligent or handicapped, Republicans or Democrats, caucasian or African American. Last I checked we are all human. And we are all in the same boat.
In regard to hospital beds. Several years ago, the government created critical access hospitals. These were typically rural hospitals and physician underserved areas. To qualify, these hospitals had to reduce their number of beds to 25 beds or less. This occured nation wide. There are approximately 1350 critical access hospitals. Some of these hospitals closed or gave up dozens of beds in order to receive greater reimbursement by the government. Re-open them and increase our ability to care for more of the worst case scenarios we hear about. Also, we have much improved ways to ventilate patients that do not require mechanical ventilators. These are often referred to as non invasive ventilation. This greatly expands our ability to care for people who need assistance from a pulmonary perspective.