A state President Donald Trump won with 60% of the vote in 2016, Arkansas, looks like it is in play for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll.
Trump leads Biden 47% to 45% among the poll’s likely Arkansas voters, which is within the polls 3.3 percentage point margin of error and makes it a virtual or statistical tie.
The poll results: “If the election for President were being held today, which candidate would you support”:
Most notable is a Biden lean of Arkansas independent voters by a 46-40%, according to the poll.
“We are seeing trends in other states that resemble the Trump-Biden matchup here, but it has been a decade since we’ve seen independent voters lean to the Democrat versus the Republican in a high-profile race,” Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock said. “Is this an aberration or a trend?
“It’s a snapshot in time during a turbulent month. I’d have to see this show up consistently to believe something is shifting in deep-red Arkansas, but we’ll be watching this going forward.”
Brock is a former staffer for President Bill Clinton’s campaign and once filed a lawsuit against GOP ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee. Clinton was the former governor of Arkansas.
“While the state’s electoral history suggests that it ultimately will not be closely fought in the fall, Arkansans are split at this troubled moment for the Trump presidency and even a relatively close presidential vote could have implications elsewhere on the Arkansas ballot,” according to Hendrix College professor emeritus Dr. Jay Barth.
The TBP poll was conducted June 9-10 among 869 likely Arkansas voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.