Living on the opposite side of the world to the USA I am obliged to follow American politics as a stone thrown into the Washington swamp sends ripples that reach this far.
With less than a year to go until the next presidential election it is time to assess the current political landscape.
Trump of course is the focus of massive media noise. This must be ignored if a rational analysis is to be produced. 2016 proved that opinion polls must also be ignored.
As things stand today Trump holds the following chips in his stack:
- He is the incumbent
- The official employment numbers are in his favor
- The official economic numbers are in his favor
- His Republican approval is over 90%
- His Hispanic/black approval ratings are at record levels for a Republican
- He has made a dent in the illegal immigration problem
- He has not started any new wars
- Both Trump and the RNC are raking in record amounts of campaign cash
- He will have the vote of most people with a 401(k) account
- He will have the vote of most people in the military
- He is in control of the social media narrative
- He pushed the concept of the deep state and fake news into the mainstream
- Democrat controlled cities are clearly in serious decline
- He forced the DNC to defend their lunatic far left fringe and embrace their views
- He forced the Democrats into the farcical impeachment process
- The Democrats have little cash on hand
- The Democrats do not have a viable policy platform
- The Democrats do not currently have a viable contender for the nomination
Probably the most important fact we have learned since the election of Trump is that the deep state does exist in America and that it is a massively powerful hand on the tiller of American policy.
It has also become abundantly clear that this faction was strongly opposed to the policies Trump ran on in 2016 and that they have tried to impede him ever since he announced his candidacy. It is not unreasonable to conclude that this faction does not wish Trump to win re-election.
The question then becomes how far are they prepared to go in stopping him.
1. The most obvious way to stop Trump would be at the the ballot box. However, given the factors outlined above this is a long shot bet. None of the declared Democrat candidates can beat him. Hillary Clinton would fail again. A Republican cannot unseat him. Obama has been keeping a very low profile, it is possible that his wife Michelle could win, if she could be persuaded to run. Oprah?
2. What would turn the world of Trump upside down would be a financial crisis of a similar magnitude to 2008, or a major dollar collapse (Putin said last week the dollar would collapse soon). If there were a consensus among the deep state to take such action it would be incredibly easy for them to achieve given the highly unstable fabric of markets today.
The corporate credit markets could be pushed into panic by Jamie Dimon alone if he wished such an outcome and had the blessing of his buddies. Indeed, the cynic might argue that the groundwork has been laid since the start of the repo problem in mid September and the launching of QE4. Last time around the patsie was Lehman, has Deutsche Bank been singled out to take the fall this time? Time is running short for this to be an option, a crisis must be in play by spring next year to stymie the Orange Man.
3. The third way Trump could be stopped does not bear thinking about but it happened before to JFK 56 years ago.
Epstein did not kill himself.
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