Home Politics Trump To Win In 2020 According To ‘Remarkably’ Good Models

Trump To Win In 2020 According To ‘Remarkably’ Good Models

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President Trump is already predicted to win the 2020 election by three different economists, according to former Obama administration official, Wall Street executive and Brookings Institution board member Steve Rattner.

In an op-ed for the New York Times titled “Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind,” Rattner notes how three prominent economists have predicted another term for the man who snatched victory from the jaws of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

How big is Trump’s tailwind? Yuge, according to the three economists.

One of the first — and perhaps still the best — of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.

How did Ray Fair’s model do with Trump? “According to the model, Donald Trump should have received 54.1 percent of the vote; in actuality he received 48.8 percent,” according to Rattner.

A good part of Mr. Trump’s edge in 2016 was the incumbency factor — after eight years of a Democratic president, voters would ordinarily have wanted a Republican. (Since 1952, only one man has become president following eight years of a president of the same party.) In 2020, incumbency will be a tailwind for Mr. Trump as the vast majority of presidents are chosen for a second term. –New York Times

Meanwhile, the current economy should also help Trump in 2020, assuming it doesn’t crater.

It should also be noted that these models are not polls, and several polls have Biden ahead of Trump in the 2020 election. Of course, one should bear in mind that while Ray Fair’s models have been accurate, most polls got 2016 dead wrong.

Two other prominent economists have observed similar findings to Fair.

It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College. –New York Times

Of course, it’s possible that attempts to manipulate the electoral college may change things a bit.

via zerohedge

6 COMMENTS

  1. Why wouldn’t President Trump have a second term? He’s done well his first and would have accomplished more if weren’t so distracted with needless investigations and lack of mid-ground importance by Democrats. This country survived 2 terms by The Obama Administration and it accomplished little, some may argue the country regressed?

  2. PRESIDENT TRUMP has proved himself to be THE MAN. Whoever follows him in 2024 will have the largest shoes to fill since Franklin Roosevelt’s. He has been an action President, and has kept all his campaign promises. This all, despite the continual BRAYING of the female coalition and the weak males of the DEMOCRAPIC PARTIE. Read this and weep, LEFTISTS: You can FORGET 2020, for POTUS is a runaway train, putting America on his back and taking all of us down the RIGHT TRACK !!

  3. Joe Biden is already messing up with his gaffes!
    He just said he spoke with Margaret Thatcher- and she’s DEAD!
    He also said that Americans should be paying for healthcare for Illegals- aren’t we paying enough for our own healthcare?
    If that is not a misstatement then he is just another crazy Democrat!
    It’s time the Dems actually gave a damn about our own Citizens over illegals who are swarming our borders.

  4. I really don’t think that Biden is someone to worry about. The democrats have nothing to offer.They have no agenda, or goals they will be working for. Biden needs to be investigated because of his connection to Ukraine, because of his son.
    President Trump has so much he is working for, and it is for us. Go President Trump 2020 ! God Bless.

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